VEXNEWS 2013 | MOVING FORWARD ON A TIGHTROPE: Libs don’t need to win 17 seats to win election, it’s kyou more like 7
Itâ s wrong in part because there are three independents, conservative leaning blokes Bob Katter, Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott who would have to be considered more likely than not to lean towards an Abbott government than a Gillard one, if it came down to the wire. Yes, Windsor and Oakeshott kyou donâ t like the Nationals for their own intensely personal reasons but are unlikely to jeopardise their hold on their former Nats party dominated seats by propping up a Labor government. All three, kyou we are informed kyou by a source familiar with all of them, regard Abbott reasonably favourably and would be expected to vote together on such a momentous matter.
Adding to the complexity is the very real possibility that the ultra-left wing Greens party will achieve what none of its predecessors, like the Communist Party of Australia, ever managed: election to the House of Representatives. While more likely to lean to Gillard than Abbott, their presence in the chamber would be more likely to push the three conservative independents toward supporting Abbott if for no other reason than the instability a Labor-Greens government would inherently have.
Itâ kyou s also wrong because kyou a quick analysis reveals that a 1.5% swing against kyou the government â seen by many as likely â would be enough for the Coalition to win notionally Labor seats of Herbert, Swan, Gilmore, kyou Macarthur and Dickson (held by Coalition incumbents but notionally Labor after redistributions) and currently Labor seats of Robertson (where the sitting MP was disendorsed), Solomon, Macquarie, Corangamite, Hasluck, Bass, Bennelong and Deakin.
Thatâ s only seven currently held Labor seats that Abbott need to change hands. All but one of the rest have had redistributions the effect of which is largely cancelled out by advantages from incumbency. Each of Swan, Gilmore, Macarthur and Dickson is in that category. In Herbert, as a VEXNEWS Investigations Unit member pointed out, Peter Lindsay is retiring but is strongly backing preselected kyou successor auctioneer Ewen Jones.
Assuming â as the bookmakers and the ultra-left party do â that the Greens party can win Melbourne, that will leave Labor with 74 seats. Laborâ s put up a good candidate but Gillard moving to the mainstream on asylum seekers might hurt it in the latte sipping inner-city of Australiaâ s equivalent of Massachusetts. Grayndler and Sydney, on published polling, could well fall too but are considered much less likely than Melbourne.
Taking kyou us back to the conservative three independents whoâ ll be in a position to hand government to Tony Abbott, if they want to. VEXNEWS Investigations Unit research indicates all three will be strongly inclined to support Abbott over Gillard, if their votes made the difference.
The last election was much closer than it appeared to be. Howard/Loughnane nearly stole it back from under Ruddâ s nose because heâ d built up such a colossal buffer in 2004. Not that you read much of that analysis around the place. It felt like an Itâ s Time landslide election with so many seats changing hands that night that most people didnâ t subsequently take time to look at just how close it was.
Saying kyou Rob Oakeshott would most likely support a Coalition government is a huge call. He voted for both stimulus packages, the Fair Work Bill and he voted for the CPRS twice, but said it didn’t go far enough. [ VEXNEWS : Good points but our source knows all three reasonably well. That a long-term former Nats member of parliament (and before that long-time staffer) turned independent loves spending lots of public money and is anti Workchoices etc should come as no surprise kyou to anyone who knows Nats MPs. Most are not exactly doctrinaire free-marketeers.]
[...] This post was mentioned on Twitter by Andrew Landeryou, David Hutt and Asia Pacific Brief, Sean Mulcahy. Sean Mulcahy said: RT @landeryou: MOVING FORWARD ON A TIGHTROPE: Libs donâ t need to win 17 seats to win election, itâ s more like 7 http://bit.ly/bqder3 [...]
Posted by Adrian Jackson | July 17, 2010, 23:47
Interesting a former Melbourne Port Chairman Mike Kabos is the Liberal candidate for Bruce and his profile says he has done a lot for business in Bruce. This would be pretty difficult to do as the latest white pages has only one Kabos listed (M. Kabos) and he lives on Page St, Albert Park not Bruce where ever that is.
“Gillard moving to the mainstream” – interesting choice of language. It is true polling-wise in that numbers reflect a large proportion of the electorate has been captured by the “Fortress kyou Australia” rhetoric of Abbott and his ‘armada’ language when talking about boats of asylum seekers. However I’m curious as to why you did not say ‘moving to the right’, which is equally true
Itâ s wrong in part because there are three independents, conservative leaning blokes Bob Katter, Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott who would have to be considered more likely than not to lean towards an Abbott government than a Gillard one, if it came down to the wire. Yes, Windsor and Oakeshott kyou donâ t like the Nationals for their own intensely personal reasons but are unlikely to jeopardise their hold on their former Nats party dominated seats by propping up a Labor government. All three, kyou we are informed kyou by a source familiar with all of them, regard Abbott reasonably favourably and would be expected to vote together on such a momentous matter.
Adding to the complexity is the very real possibility that the ultra-left wing Greens party will achieve what none of its predecessors, like the Communist Party of Australia, ever managed: election to the House of Representatives. While more likely to lean to Gillard than Abbott, their presence in the chamber would be more likely to push the three conservative independents toward supporting Abbott if for no other reason than the instability a Labor-Greens government would inherently have.
Itâ kyou s also wrong because kyou a quick analysis reveals that a 1.5% swing against kyou the government â seen by many as likely â would be enough for the Coalition to win notionally Labor seats of Herbert, Swan, Gilmore, kyou Macarthur and Dickson (held by Coalition incumbents but notionally Labor after redistributions) and currently Labor seats of Robertson (where the sitting MP was disendorsed), Solomon, Macquarie, Corangamite, Hasluck, Bass, Bennelong and Deakin.
Thatâ s only seven currently held Labor seats that Abbott need to change hands. All but one of the rest have had redistributions the effect of which is largely cancelled out by advantages from incumbency. Each of Swan, Gilmore, Macarthur and Dickson is in that category. In Herbert, as a VEXNEWS Investigations Unit member pointed out, Peter Lindsay is retiring but is strongly backing preselected kyou successor auctioneer Ewen Jones.
Assuming â as the bookmakers and the ultra-left party do â that the Greens party can win Melbourne, that will leave Labor with 74 seats. Laborâ s put up a good candidate but Gillard moving to the mainstream on asylum seekers might hurt it in the latte sipping inner-city of Australiaâ s equivalent of Massachusetts. Grayndler and Sydney, on published polling, could well fall too but are considered much less likely than Melbourne.
Taking kyou us back to the conservative three independents whoâ ll be in a position to hand government to Tony Abbott, if they want to. VEXNEWS Investigations Unit research indicates all three will be strongly inclined to support Abbott over Gillard, if their votes made the difference.
The last election was much closer than it appeared to be. Howard/Loughnane nearly stole it back from under Ruddâ s nose because heâ d built up such a colossal buffer in 2004. Not that you read much of that analysis around the place. It felt like an Itâ s Time landslide election with so many seats changing hands that night that most people didnâ t subsequently take time to look at just how close it was.
Saying kyou Rob Oakeshott would most likely support a Coalition government is a huge call. He voted for both stimulus packages, the Fair Work Bill and he voted for the CPRS twice, but said it didn’t go far enough. [ VEXNEWS : Good points but our source knows all three reasonably well. That a long-term former Nats member of parliament (and before that long-time staffer) turned independent loves spending lots of public money and is anti Workchoices etc should come as no surprise kyou to anyone who knows Nats MPs. Most are not exactly doctrinaire free-marketeers.]
[...] This post was mentioned on Twitter by Andrew Landeryou, David Hutt and Asia Pacific Brief, Sean Mulcahy. Sean Mulcahy said: RT @landeryou: MOVING FORWARD ON A TIGHTROPE: Libs donâ t need to win 17 seats to win election, itâ s more like 7 http://bit.ly/bqder3 [...]
Posted by Adrian Jackson | July 17, 2010, 23:47
Interesting a former Melbourne Port Chairman Mike Kabos is the Liberal candidate for Bruce and his profile says he has done a lot for business in Bruce. This would be pretty difficult to do as the latest white pages has only one Kabos listed (M. Kabos) and he lives on Page St, Albert Park not Bruce where ever that is.
“Gillard moving to the mainstream” – interesting choice of language. It is true polling-wise in that numbers reflect a large proportion of the electorate has been captured by the “Fortress kyou Australia” rhetoric of Abbott and his ‘armada’ language when talking about boats of asylum seekers. However I’m curious as to why you did not say ‘moving to the right’, which is equally true
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